Hiroshima University Syllabus |

Japanese

Academic Year 2022Year School/Graduate School School of Engineering Lecture Code K6707020 Subject Classification Specialized Education Subject Name 意思決定論 Subject Name

（Katakana）イシケッテイロン Subject Name in

EnglishDecision Making Instructor NISHIZAKI ICHIROU Instructor

(Katakana)ニシザキ イチロウ Campus Higashi-Hiroshima Semester/Term 3rd-Year, Second Semester, 4Term Days, Periods, and Classrooms (4T) Thur3-4,Fri1-2：ENG 103 Lesson Style Lecture Lesson Style

(More Details)Face-to-face lectures may be held depending on the situation. Credits 2.0 Class Hours/Week Language of Instruction J : Japanese Course Level 2 : Undergraduate Low-Intermediate Course Area（Area） 25 : Science and Technology Course Area（Discipline） 11 : Electrical, Systems, and Control Engineering Eligible Students Students enrolled in and before 2020 Keywords Uncertainty, preference, expected utility, subjective (judgmental) probability, multiattribute utility function Special Subject for Teacher Education Special Subject Class Status

within Educational

ProgramCriterion referenced

EvaluationProgram of Electrical,Systems and Information Engineering

（Abilities and Skills）

・Concepts, knowledge and methods which are the basis for studies related to electrical, systems, and information engineering.Class Objectives

/Class OutlineIn this subject, we deal with decision making under uncertainty, and discuss how a decision maker confronting with such decision problems should select an alternative based on his or her judgment and preference.

By participating and learning in this class, students can obtain ability of formulating and resolving problems which is necessary in systems engineering. In particular, they can understand basic frameworks and concepts (1. assessment of utilities for outcomes, 2. quantification of judgment, 3. analysis of decision trees, 4. Bayes' theorem，5. assessment of a multiattribute utility functyion) for making decisions rationally.Class Schedule 1. Introduction

2. Utility theory: decision making under certainty, completeness, transtivety, value function

3. Utility theory: decision making under uncertainty, stochastic dominance, basic assumptions

4. Utility function: definition of utility function, risk attitude

5. Assessments of utility function: identification of utility functions by using lotteries, assumption of function types

6. Quantification of judgment: judgmental probabilities, probability assessments for decision making

7. Graphcal tools: decision tree

8. Graphical tools: practices of decision trees

9. Graphical tools and Theorems: influence diagram, decision matrix, von Neumann-Morgenstern theorem, Savage theorem

10. Prospect theory: counter examples of maximization of expected utility, rank-dependent utility, reference dependence, loss aversion, event weighting function

11. Multiattribute utility function: multiobjective decision making under certainty, structuring objectives, domination, efficient frontier, value function, marginal rate of substitution

12. Multiattribute utility function: identification of multiattribute utility functions

13. Multiattribute utility function: multiobjective decision making under uncertainty, additive utility functions, multiplicative utility functions

14. Multicriteria decision making: AHP

15. Multicriteria decision making: PROMETHEE

15 report assignmentsText/Reference

Books,etc.Mathematical methods for decision making, I. Nishizaki, Morikita Publishing, 2017 (in Japanese) PC or AV used in

Class,etc.(More Details) PC, projector Learning techniques to be incorporated Suggestions on

Preparation and

ReviewIn the first class, students should try to understand the outline of lecture.

In the second to fifth classes, they should try to understand utility of a decision maker.

In the sixth class, they should try to understand assessment of probabilities from a viewpoint of the decision maker.

In the seventh to eighth classes, students should try to understand rational decision making using a decision tree based on the concepts introduced so far.

In the ninth class, they should try to understand axiomatic approaches of decision making.

In the tenth class, they should try to understand descriptive aspects of decision making.

In the eleventh, twelfth, and thirteenth classes, they should try to understand extension from a single-attribute utility function to a multiattribute utility function.

In the fourteenth and fifteenth classes, they should try to understand differences between decision making methods.Requirements As a general rule, students must attend all classes, and submit assignments. Grading Method Students are basically evaluated by fifteen assignments. Practical Experience Summary of Practical Experience and Class Contents based on it Message Other Please fill in the class improvement questionnaire which is carried out on all classes.

Instructors will reflect on your feedback and utilize the information for improving their teaching.